Posted by Ueli (195.162.170.200) on January 22, 2001 at 14:39:26:
In Reply to: Ueli, and at the same time... posted by Luke on January 22, 2001 at 12:02:44:
Luke, my post was simply to refute some misconception. If you want to take this as bickering, so be it. Your attitude towards my opinion does not affect my sleep.
What are probabilities useful for? Let me give you an example:
The earth is constantly bombarded by meteorites from outer space. There is a very small chance that somebody can be hit by one, but there is no evidence, neither confirmed nor anecdotal, that it ever happened. So, we would call someone, running around in a knights armour for protection against this hazard, well, let's say over-cautious.
However, should one day a guy be hit by a meteorite, and all the evidence shows it was an object from outer space indeed, it is utterly futile say: "The probability for such an event is less than one in ten billion, therefore it must have been something else".
But Luke, you exactly use such a false reasoning: You dismiss all the circumstantial evidence for the argument of low probability. And those neurologist that use such unscientific argumentation have caused our sisters with CH years of mis-treatment.
PFNAD's,
Ueli
PS: Your post was resented by shelly too, the mother of the child in question.
PPS: Some people have already gotten their academic degree, something that's still in store for you.