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        Daily Chat >> General Posts >> Human/Machine Interface?
        
(Message started by: George_J on Feb 17^th, 2008, 10:13am)

Title: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by George_J on Feb 17^th, 2008, 10:13am

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7248875.stm

The future-prediction business is fraught with hazard--there have been as many bad guesses as good ones.

Any comments on this particular "brave new world"? I'd be interested to hear what you think about it.

Best wishes,

George

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by nani on Feb 17^th, 2008, 11:50am

nanobots that clean my house...I love it!!
nanobots in my brain... not so much.

I find these possibilities kinda scary.

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by Jonny on Feb 17^th, 2008, 1:09pm

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/49/Terminator.jpg/200px-Terminator.jpg

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by Charlie on Feb 17^th, 2008, 2:55pm

"What are you doing, Dave?" :o

Charlie

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by artonio7 on Feb 17^th, 2008, 3:41pm

I don't know... I think it might open up a whole new market in the cosmetics industry....

http://artonio7.com/bq.jpg

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by Kevin_M on Feb 17^th, 2008, 6:49pm

I see Kurzweil has a list of predictions, among them:

Quote:

Future Predictions:

For 2029

Massively parallel neural nets, which are constructed through reverse-engineering the human brain, are in common use.

Reverse engineering of the human brain completed.

For 2099

The human brain has been completely reverse engineered and all aspects of its functioning are understood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil

It is seventy years later that he again states the brain will be completely reverse engineered, but now with complete understanding.
All is possible but seventy years of accelerated technology advances to again restate reverse engineering of the brain with complete understanding after saying it is completed for common use application in 2029 leaves much in the balance for implementation 21 years from now in nanobots, not to mention the laws that need to be passed to be in "common use".

In this Business Week interview, that reverse engineering, while still a "scenario for achieving", seems essential and dependent upon his own extension of Moore's Law he proposed in 2001, "The Law of Accelerating Returns", also mentioned in the Wiki link.

Quote:

That raw computing capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition to achieve human-level intelligence in a machine. We also need the organization and the software to organize those resources. There are a number of scenarios for achieving that. The most compelling is reverse-engineering the human brain. We're already well down that path, with techniques like MRI. But we'll do better because the speed and resolution--the bandwidth--with which we can scan the brain are also accelerating exponentially.

http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_36/b3645053.htm

However, also noted in the BBC article are major challenges facing humanity, listing:

Quote:

CHALLENGES FACING HUMANITY

Make solar energy affordable
Provide energy from fusion
Develop carbon sequestration
Manage the nitrogen cycle
Provide access to clean water
Reverse engineer the brain
Prevent nuclear terror
Secure cyberspace
Enhance virtual reality
Improve urban infrastructure
Advance health informatics
Engineer better medicines
Advance personalised learning

The first five most important are of an environmental concern. The sixth is "reverse engineering of the brain".
To me, the first five are going to be very difficult to achieve. Then comes reverse engineering, I don't know, perhaps equally as challenging maybe, followed by preventing nuclear terror and securing cyberspace, which seem unanswerable at this time, especially since Kurzweil himself also mentions he reserves this prediction for 2099 in the same Wikipedia link:

Computer viruses are a major threat since most intelligent beings are software-based.

There is optimism in his remarks, especially this:

Quote:

Kurzweil is on the Army Science Advisory Board, has testified before Congress on the subject of nanotechnology, and sees considerable potential in the science to solve significant global problems such as climate change, viz. Nanotech Could Give Global Warming a Big Chill (July, 2006).

which I have not read.

on 02/17/08 at 10:13:57, George_J wrote:

The future-prediction business is fraught with hazard--there have been as many bad guesses as good ones.

Any comments on this particular "brave new world"? I'd be interested to hear what you think about it.

I'd imagine a few more bumps in the road to the target dates he optimistically predicts. Seat belts were first tried in the 50's but not law in this state until this century. The gradual phasing of experimental ideas to "common use" as he mentions might be awhile after 2029.
Although I do believe the 21st century to be the age of biology.

Title: Re: Human/Machine Interface?
Post by andrewjb on Feb 17^th, 2008, 7:17pm

ever onward into the brave new world, :(.