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Title: informed decisions vs. paranoia Post by karma on Sep 23rd, 2005, 7:37am The latest predictions have Rita landing East of Galveston as a major storm. NOAA currently has it at 90% that it will be a category 3 or greater. Scary? Yes! It's big and powerful, BUT, Here are some more details. Estimated hurricane force winds extend outwards +/- 86 miles from the center. Thats winds over 74 mph, not winds of 145 throughout. Its estimated that it will be down graded to a Tropical storm after 12 hrs. That should be about 100 miles inland. Its also estimated to meander around NE Texas and possibly move south as a MAJOR rain event after 48 hrs. The coastal area to the east will see the biggest impact from the sea. This could be significant for the Galveston, Houston area as the storm looks to be heading east of there. I'm not trying to minimize the severity of this system only to show that the worst of it should be confined to a relatively small area. Anyone on the coast close to the center and deciding to stay are in for a hellacious ride but if your inland by even 50 miles or so it should be far less severe and easily manageable. Not fun but managable. I'm sorry If I sound uncaring. I'm not. I have immediate family in Houston. They are safe. But others are stuck. Its just that I have to make decisons that affect my crewmembers and my families lives when ever hurricanes pass through here which is quite often. I've learned to look at these things a bit differently. I've spent many sleepless nites wondering if I made the right decision and how my boys are doing because I can't get in touch with them on the radio. Good Luck to all! |
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Title: Re: informed decisions vs. paranoia Post by Langa on Sep 23rd, 2005, 7:49am Hi Robbie! Thanks for posting this…hopefully it will ease some fears. Though I agree with you that it is still a scary and guarded time. For some reason when you mentioned about your boys out at sea I thought of that movie “Perfect Storm”…that was some scary stuff. Langa |
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Title: Re: informed decisions vs. paranoia Post by cootie on Sep 23rd, 2005, 10:42am thanks for the info karma......not to sound dumb or stupid (I find it hard to keep up with what everyone does on here) but what is it you do......sounds really interesting and I am always interested in people's lives outside this place. Just curious Pam |
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Title: Re: informed decisions vs. paranoia Post by catlind on Sep 23rd, 2005, 12:16pm Karma, I can't speak for all the people in the affected area, but the people we have been updating aren't concerned with the actual landfall of the hurricane at all. The concerns are for the flooding, and the fact that they will sustain hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds for a prolonged period. While most buildings can handle 75 mph winds, you are dealing with a completely different scenario when you are talking about 12-18 hours of straight line winds at 75mph SUSTAINED. In addition, the tornado's spawned and the deluge of rain becomes the major impact for outlying areas. I am not suggesting that anyone would or should panic, but there is far more to be considered than just where the surge and eyewall will make landfall. My hubby has been an air force meteorologist for 21 years and has been working with Roxy and her hubby for the last 3 years with hurricane impact forecasting. His forecasts actually have little to do with the eyewall landfall, and focus primarily on risk management and impact damage forecasting. It's well known what will happen within the cone of landfall, it's the outlying areas and adjacent areas that need preparation for weather damage and impact that is spawned as a result of the hurricane not the hurricane itself. That's been his job with the AF for the last 20 years -- determining what type of damage will occur to military resources (human and equipment) during any given weather event. The concern and 'hype' if you want, is about what will happen to wood frame structures or mobile homes, trees and other debris during a sustained period of winds and rain. I think there's been very little paranoia and certainly no paranoia with the people we have been dealing directly with, but rather intelligent and informed concern on the impact to outlying areas and what if any precautions should be taken. I personally think it would be irresponsible to suggest that people outside of the landfall cone should not be worried or not take appropriate precautions to protect themselves and their property from the weather conditions that will occur outside of the landfall cone. Cat |
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Title: Re: informed decisions vs. paranoia Post by karma on Sep 23rd, 2005, 3:47pm Cat, Then your husband and I probably have a very similar idea of what to expect. I was in no way encouraging anyone to take this thing lightly, in fact if you've read any of my previous comments on hurricanes the theme is ALWAYS be prepared or move. I don't believe you will read anywhere that I said don't be worried. The point I was trying to make is that although this storm is large in size the severe impact area should be relatively small. I was just trying to ease some of the concern by those that are far away and uneducated about these. Quote:
This is a walk in the park for us but then we build for them. How about 36 hrs. of hurricane force winds, with 8 hours of 120mph sustained and 205 mph gusts. That was the first of seven hurricanes in five years to hit our spec in the ocean. Like I said I may have a bit of a different prospective than most. Cootie, I'm in the shipping biz with a couple of small freighters that run around the area. In the past we've always been the first ones up and running and helping out other islands that have it worse off than us. For some its the only means of getting supplies in for awhile. |
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